diff --git a/migration/migration.c b/migration/migration.c
index 108c3d7142..e1eaa97df4 100644
--- a/migration/migration.c
+++ b/migration/migration.c
@@ -2746,8 +2746,7 @@ static void migration_update_counters(MigrationState *s,
      * recalculate. 10000 is a small enough number for our purposes
      */
     if (ram_counters.dirty_pages_rate && transferred > 10000) {
-        s->expected_downtime = ram_counters.dirty_pages_rate *
-            qemu_target_page_size() / bandwidth;
+        s->expected_downtime = ram_counters.remaining / bandwidth;
     }
 
     qemu_file_reset_rate_limit(s->to_dst_file);
diff --git a/migration/ram.c b/migration/ram.c
index 225b201aff..cd5f55117d 100644
--- a/migration/ram.c
+++ b/migration/ram.c
@@ -1180,6 +1180,7 @@ static void migration_bitmap_sync(RAMState *rs)
     RAMBLOCK_FOREACH_MIGRATABLE(block) {
         migration_bitmap_sync_range(rs, block, 0, block->used_length);
     }
+    ram_counters.remaining = ram_bytes_remaining();
     rcu_read_unlock();
     qemu_mutex_unlock(&rs->bitmap_mutex);